Discussão do HPC/NCEP/NOAA
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE NORTHERNSTREAM WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE COAST OF URUGUAY/BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW/TROUGH IS TO THEN STALL OFF THE COAST. AT LOW LEVELS...A FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL- SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY TO NORTHWEST ARGENTINA EARLY IN THECYCLE. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT...INDUCINGA FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL/URUGUAY EARLY INTHE CYCLE. THROUGH 36-48 HRS THIS LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT DEEPENS TO A 1006-1008 HPA LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVINGINTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR ABATES ANDIT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF A SUBTROPICALCYCLONE FORMS...OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED BY THEGOVERNMENTS OF BRASIL
O mosaico da media de temperatura da superficie do mar medida pelo sistema SEVIRI/MSG mostra águas aquecidas na costa do Brasil
O HPC também comenta a possibilidade de convecção profunda que a frente associada a esse sistema pode trazer. É previsto um enfraquecimento dessa frente, que formará um cavado em superficie sobre o sudeste e centro oeste:
THE SURFACE FRONT...MEANWHILE...IS TOMEANDER NORTH ACROSS PARANA-PARAGUAY...TO THEN WEAKEN TO ASURFACE TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS SAO PAULO-MATO GROSSO DOSUL-NORTHERN BOLIVIA/RONDONIA IN BRASIL.EXPECTINGSCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASILEARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM/DAY.THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY WHILEEXPANDING NORTH ACROSS SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO AND MATO GROSSODO SUL IN BRASIL. BUT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...EXPECTING MAXIMA TODECREASE TO 15-30MM/DAY BY 72-84 HRS.
Previsão do HPC:
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| Sexta-feira 10/02 |
Fonte: CPTEC e NOAA
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