No entanto amanhã o avanço de uma frente fria sobre o norte patagônico, induz a formação de tempestades. Novamente sobre as províncias de La Pampa e Buenos Aires.A presença do Jato de Baixos Níveis, aumentará a advecção de ar quente e umidade, para a região. Com modelos colocam altos índices de água precipitável, superiores a 50mm.
Modelo GFS coloca Jato com valores próximos a 90km/h em 850hPa
O HPC alerta para altos volumes de chuva, que em dois dias poderá chegar a 200mm em algumas localidades em projeção do GFS.
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NOTE: HEAVY RAINS ARE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PROVINCES INARGENTINA/RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERECONVECTION IN THIS AREA...WITH HIGH RISK ON DAY 01 AND LOW ON DAY02.
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O risco de convecção severa é alto nas províncias centrais da Argentina. Em projeções do modelo global americano, CAPE chegaria 2.400j/kg com Lifted em -4, na tarde deste sábado. O modelo brasileiro ETA é mais severo e projeta índices mais altos, como CAPE em 3.000j/kg e Lifted em -6.Pelo modelo americano, a chance de supercélulas não é descartável, apesar de não ser muito grande. Sendo que alguma pode se formar numa linha de instabilidade pré-frontal (squall-line) que é projetada pelo HPC.
A chance de tempo severo na Argentina seguirá ainda no domingo. Com a linha de instabilidade, se deslocando até o sul uruguaio. A frente no entanto avançaria apenas sobre o Uruguai, tendo seu avanço impedido pelo ar quente presente sobre o Rio Grande do Sul.
Continuação da discussão do HPC
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A TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM MEANDERS ALONG 80W/85W TO 20S.THIS TROUGH IS PRESSING AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT EXTENDSFROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST BRASIL-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSHEAST AGAINST THIS AXIS...WHICH IS FOCUSING THE SHORT WAVE ENERGYACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHILE TO ARGENTINA. BY 24-36 HRS ENOUGHENERGY WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE ANDES TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF75-100GPM. THROUGH 60-84 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO THEN SLOWLY MOVEACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT 250 HPA THESUBTROPICAL JET WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE AT A NEARLYPERPENDICULAR ANGLE...TO THEN CROSS CENTRAL ARGENTINA. THIS WILLFAVOR GENERATION OF LEE SIDE PERTURBATIONS WHILE ALSO SUSTAININGAREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE DEEP TROUGH PATTERN SUSTAINSA SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSSCHILE BETWEEN TEMUCO-CHILLAN. IN THIS AREA...STRONG TOPOGRAPHICALFORCING WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN SUPPORT OFORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALLMAXIMA OF 50-75MM IN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH 36 HRS.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THECONTINENT...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT MEANDERSACROSS LA PAMPA/BUENOS AIRES PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA-CONCEPCION/TEMUCO CHILE...SUSTAINING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THISBOUNDARY. THROUGH 24-36 HRS A LOW WILL FORM...WITH CIRCULATION TOOCCLUDE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF PATAGONIA BY 36-48 HRS. THEDIGGING LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE FAVORING ASOUTHERLY JET ACROSS PATAGONIA-LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL INDUCE THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTACROSS BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE-RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN-CORDOBA TOMENDOZA IN ARGENTINA BY 48-60 HRS. THROUGH 72-84 HRS THE FRONTWILL MEANDER NORTH ACROSS URUGUAY-CORDOBA TO NORTHERN MENDOZA...WHERE IT IS TO THEN REMAIN THROUGH 108-120 HRS. AN 850 HPANORTHERLY JET OF 30-35KT ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA-PARAGUAY-CENTRALARGENTINA WILL SUSTAIN A WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...TOCONVERGE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERCONTENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 50-60MMEARLY IN THE CYCLE. HIGH VALUES ARE TO PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OFTHIS FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FUELING ORGANIZED DEEPCONVECTION. FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERECONVECTION. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 60-100MM/DAY...WITH HEAVY RAINS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 72-96HRS...WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
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Fonte : NOAA, Cptec/Inpe
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Fonte : NOAA, Cptec/Inpe
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